Four Events, One Convergence: Why India Should Look Beyond the G2 Lens

What the Article Says

During a discussion at the World Intellectual Forum on 28 September on the emerging global order and India’s role, I shared a concern. The world is viewing the churning of the world order through the lens of a G2. India, however, should watch with worry the confluence of four events of the 21st century.

First, the irrelevance of international and national institutions, along with the loss of credibility of the so-called modern powers, who now stand exposed. None of them has control.

Second, societal churning, not only in India but across the world. Ideologies are divided into silos, and the left, now re-energised, is manipulating a large young generation. This generation is fragile-minded and distanced from the realities on the ground. The churning rides on migration and the large-scale movement of people from rural to urban areas and from poorer lands to richer ones. They are driven by the desire to enjoy the benefits of modern living in anonymity, without having worked for it or having the skills to survive. The left, itself exploited by religious ideologies, is using these young people to create friction and achieve centrality.

Third, technology disruption. Technology is an accelerator of disturbance. It sits in the hands of powerful giants of various media platforms, who earn and invest trillions by feeding on the emotions of a fragile population. They claim to be honest brokers of truth and freedom of speech and expression, yet they control algorithms selectively to scale up disruption, which leads to more money. Technology is also used to harness data for further manipulation and exploitation through AI, where consumers on digital platforms are truly the product.

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Lastly, and most recently, grains. Energy and fertiliser supplies are choked, and supply routes such as the Black Sea are disrupted. Add migration, climate events and blocked chokepoints, and next year will see a shortage of grains. The loop of convergence will then repeat.

India can lead in teaching the world, but only if political parties mature and institutions evolve. Otherwise, 2027 looks difficult. I hope I am wrong.

I endorse the views on the shortage of grains recently given by Mr Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs.